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Recently, influenced by the rebound in futures prices and the MHP coefficient fluctuating at highs. As of now, the MHP coefficient (relative to the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) is 84%-85%, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP is $12,649/mt (Ni contained).
Demand side, based on the MHP coefficient remaining high with no downward trend, nickel salt producers, due to cost concerns, remain in a wait-and-see phase for MHP procurement in Q3. Supply side, affected by recent flood disasters, Indonesian MHP production is limited, and a significant impact is expected in April. Cost side, the latest PNBP royalty policy implemented in Indonesia is tentatively set to take effect on the 26th, which will directly increase the sales cost of nickel ore. Market feedback indicates that the price increase for hydrometallurgical nickel ore procurement caused by this policy has already been reflected in early April. Moreover, the royalty imposed on hydrometallurgical ore itself is relatively low, calculated based on a 1.3 grade nickel ore, requiring an additional payment of about $0.75/wmt compared to before the PNBP amendment. Therefore, the PNBP policy is expected to have a relatively limited transmission effect on MHP production costs in the short term.
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